Three eNASCAR Playoff seats still in limbo entering Pocono

The eNASCAR Coca-Cola iRacing Series playoffs start in two weeks at Michigan International Raceway. 10 drivers will have a chance to compete for their share of $500,000 and the 2024 Dale Earnhardt Jr Cup. However, we don’t quite know exactly which 10 drivers that will be.

Seven drivers are confirmed so far: Steven Wilson (M80), Vicente Salas (Kanaan Esports), Bobby Zalenski (Joe Gibbs Racing), Tucker Minter (William Byron eSports), Garrett Lowe (BS+COMPETITION), Daniel Faulkingham (Joe Gibbs Racing), and Dylan Duval (Nitro Circus Sim Racing). There are still three unconfirmed seats on the playoff train, and it all depends on what happens at Pocono Raceway on Tuesday night.

CURRENTLY INSIDE THE eNASCAR PLAYOFFS

If the cutoff was two weeks ago, only one of the three remaining seats would fall to a prior winner, and the other two would go to those highest in points without a win. Right on the line and in by virtue of a tiebreaker, Wyatt Tinsley (QuikTrip Pioneers Gaming) sits in 20th, the absolute lowest possible position to advance to the 2024 eNASCAR Playoffs. Up in second and fourth in the standings, respectively, are Parker White (Williams Esports) and Nick Ottinger (William Byron eSports).

They hold the final tickets, but none of them are guaranteed. In Tinsley’s case, falling outside of the top 20 will end his chances. He just needs to make sure he stays in. White is in a better position than Ottinger, as a new winner won’t necessarily knock him out. He’s 31 points ahead of Ottinger, so a 32nd place finish or better should get him there.

It all hinges on what Malik Ray (Spire Motorsports) does down in 22nd in the standings, also with a win-and-in ticket, as well as if one of those outside looking in drivers can steal a win like Michael Guest (23XI) did last year. The 10th and final win-and-in ticket belongs to Keegan Leahy (23XI), but he’s too far out on points, nearly 90 behind 20th place. Unfortunately, that means he can’t race for a second title this season.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

There are 13 drivers inside the top 20 or tied for 20th that can advance to the eNASCAR Playoffs by simply winning tonight. Not only do they include White and Ottinger, but also Casey Kirwan (Spire Motorsports), Kaden Honeycutt (JR Motorsports), Graham Bowlin (QuikTrip Pioneers Gaming), Jordy Lopez (BS+COMPETITION), Michael Cosey Jr (Front Row Motorsports, Zack Novak (OXYGEN Esports), Donovan Strauss (Williams Esports), Jimmy Mullis (Kevin Harvick Inc.), Kollin Keister (Kanaan Esports), Seth DeMerchant (fgrAccel eRacing), and Guest, who is tied with Tinsley for 20th. No matter the points or the other winners, these 13 drivers advance with a win under all circumstances sans any post-race penalties.

There are five more drivers on the other side of the cut line that mathematically have a chance as well. They include Ryan Luza (M80), Femi Olatunbosun (OXYGEN Esports), Garrett Manes (fgrAccel eRacing), Briar LaPradd (JR Motorsports), and Matt Bussa (Kevin Harvick Inc.) down in 27th. A win for these five doesn’t guarantee advancement. They will also need some luck in the points. Luza, Olatunbosun, and Manes are all within 10 points of the line, so it’s an easier path. For LaPradd and Bussa, they’ll need a lot to happen to make it in.

As mentioned, Malik Ray has the win, but he’s on the outside of the top 20 line, two points behind Tinsley. Another win at Pocono could guarantee his spot in the playoffs, but it’s going to be tough to get both him and Tinsley in looking at the points breakdown. Tinsley is 24 points behind the next drivers in points, which makes Ray 26 back of that line. It’s possible, but it’s less likely.

ENDLESS SCENARIOS

It could end up that all 10 drivers in the eNASCAR Playoffs are winners this season. It could wind up that the final three positions come down to points. There are a number of ways it could all play out, but thankfully it’s not too difficult to follow.

As previously mentioned, both Tinsley and Ray are right on the cut line and could mathematically make it in. Both could also fall out. The latter is a more likely scenario, as is one of the two advancing.

What they do will affect the number of points-paying positions available. If neither of them make it in, and there is no new winner at Pocono, there are three points spots. Parker White leads Nick Ottinger by 31 points. Ottinger leads Casey Kirwan by 17 points. Kirwan leads Kaden Honeycutt by 18 points.

Graham Bowlin also sits 34 points behind Kirwan. If you remember back to Iowa, he nearly won until Steven Wilson showed up to steal it away. The likelihood that Bowlin gets in on a points position is so unlikely that it would be easier for him to make it by winning the race than finishing second and hoping all the other points scenarios work out in his favor.

If there’s one winner that takes one of the final three spots, whether it’s a new winner or one of the previous two, that ends both Bowlin and Honeycutt’s chances on points. Kirwan would be the next driver out, but he could catch Ottinger.

If there are two winners in the final three spots, whether they’re both Tinsley and Ray or one of the two with a new winner, then there is only one spot left. White holds it, and the only way Ottinger could steal it without just winning would be to finish top-five and White finishing about last.

Of course, for most drivers in the conversation, the easiest way is to just go out there and win.

POCONO HISTORY

Pocono has played an integral part of the eNASCAR Playoff conversation over the last three seasons. The venue just recently became the final race of the regular season last year, a race that saw Michael Guest walk-off into playoff contention with his first career victory in the series. In the two seasons prior, Bobby Zalenski and Casey Kirwan both punched their tickets to the playoffs with a Pocono win. Zalenski’s win propelled him to the Championship 4, while Kirwan’s photo finish took him slightly higher—to his first title in 2022.

While Pocono wasn’t on the 2020 schedule, it was raced for eight seasons prior, dating back to the 2011 season. Names like Michael Conti, Leahy, and Ray Alfalla stand out, but Conti is retired and the other two don’t have any chance to dance this year. In 2019, however, Jimmy Mullis broke through for a win on the Tricky Triangle. Mullis, along with Kirwan and Guest, will definitely be looking to recreate that magic for a way into the playoffs again in 2024.

Drivers have hinted that this race will be more of a lottery than most intermediate races, with high drafting effect and packed up racing. That could play into Ray’s hands, who is a master of drafting-type circuits, and recently stated on eNASCAR’s Virtual Velocity AMA that Pocono was one of his favorite tracks. He has the stats to back him up, with a third place finish in 2019, a seventh in 2022, and of course, a runner-up finish last year.

PREVIOUS POCONO RACEWAY WINNERS (Playoff Eligible drivers in BOLD)

• 2011 – Steve Sheehan
• 2012 – Jon Adams
• 2013 – Ray Alfalla
• 2014 – Michael Conti
• 2015 – Allen Boes
• 2017 – Cody Byus
• 2018 – Keegan Leahy
• 2019 – Jimmy Mullis
• 2021 – Bobby Zalenski (already locked into 2024 eNASCAR Playoffs)
• 2022 – Casey Kirwan
• 2023 – Michael Guest

The quest for the eNASCAR Coca-Cola iRacing Series championship, and the road to $500,000, continues tonight at 8:00 pm ET, live on eNASCAR.com/live. Tune in to the pre-race Countdown to Green starting at 7:30 pm ET.

For more information on the eNASCAR Coca-Cola iRacing Series, visit eNASCAR.com or iRacing.com/eNASCAR. For more information on iRacing and for special offers, visit iRacing.com.­­

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